| 船舶电站可靠性灰色马尔可夫预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱志宇,刘汉宇,邱赟,赵洋.船舶电站可靠性灰色马尔可夫预测模型[J].船舶工程,2009,31(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱志宇 刘汉宇 邱赟 赵洋 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏科技大学,电子信息学院,镇江,212003 |
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| 基金项目： | 船舶行业国防预研基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 简要分析了现行船舶电站可靠性分析方法的不足,提出将灰色理论与马尔可夫预测相结合,运用在船用电站可靠性估计,建立其灰色马尔可夫预测模型,并根据模型对后几年船舶电站"故障率"的变化趋势进行了预测.分析表明:基于灰色马尔可夫的电站可靠性预测模型的精度高于灰色预测模型,同时弥补了单一马尔可夫链预测依赖于系统分布参数的局限,为船舶电站可靠性研究提供了一种新思路.
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| 关 键 词： | 船舶电站 灰色理论 马尔可夫链 可靠性 |
Grey Markov prediction model of ship power station reliability |
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| ZHU Zhi-yu,LIU Han-yu,QIU Yun,ZHAO Yang.Grey Markov prediction model of ship power station reliability[J].Ship Engineering,2009,31(2). |
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| Authors: | ZHU Zhi-yu LIU Han-yu QIU Yun ZHAO Yang |
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| Institution: | ZHU Zhi-yu,LIU Han-yu,QIU Yun,ZHAO Yang (School of Electronic , Information,Jiangsu University of Science , Technology,Zhenjiang 212003,China) |
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| Abstract: | The paper briefly analyzes the existing deficiencies of analysis of ship power station reliability. The Gray Theoretic and Markov Prediction is combined,which is applied in estimating reliability of ship power station. Gray-Markov model is established,which accordingly helps to predict the changes of failure rate in the following years. The analysis shows that the precision of power station reliability based on Gray-Markov model is higher than Gray prediction model. Meanwhile,it can make up for the limitati... |
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| Keywords: | ship power station grey theory Markov chain reliability |
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