Atmospheric emissions of European SECA shipping: long-term projections

We modeled the projections of the major atmospheric emissions from shipping of the European sulphur emission control area that includes the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, and the English Channel until 2040. Emission projections were calculated separately for every ship on annual basis, and the model took into account traffic growth, fleet renewal, and the forthcoming regulations. The regulation on sulfur content of ship fuels will drastically decrease the emissions of sulfur oxides and particulate matter (PM_2.5). As the regulation on nitrogen oxides (NO _x ) only affects the new diesel engines, the decrease in emissions will be seen parallel with the fleet renewal. Globally internalized limits will turn NO _x emissions to decrease with moderate traffic growth. However, by designating the Baltic Sea and the North Sea as NO _x emission control areas, more drastic decrease would occur. CO₂ emissions will stay almost constant through the studied timeline. Results show that European Commission's CO₂ target for 2050 will not be reached without implementation of market based measures among the North Sea and the Baltic Sea fleets. Results present new information for decision makers to further develop international regulations of shipping especially in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea.