铁路重要干线突发事件风险评估体系研究

随着铁路建设的发展和列车运行速度的大幅提高,铁路运输系统的技术构成更加复杂,运营管理难度相对增大,因此有必要对铁路重要干线开展风险评估,做到防患未然。深入分析可能导致铁路各类突发事件的风险源,通过历史资料分析及专家调查法,建立铁路突发事件风险评估指标体系,并以层次分析法确定各指标的权重。最后以京津城际铁路为例进行初步的风险评估。

Research on Risk Evaluation Index System for railway main lines

With the development of railway construction and improvement of railway operation speed, the technical structure of Railway Transport System was more complex, the operate and the management were more difficult, so, it was necessary to evaluate the risk for railway main lines. It was analysed the main emergency risk source that might lead to various types of railway emergency, built the Risk Evaluation Index System for railway main lines by analyzing history material and expert investigating, and used Analytic Hierarchy Process to determine the specific weight of each index. At the end of this paper, the Beijing-Tianjin Inter-city Railway construction was evaluated by Evaluation Index System.