台风预报现状及其对船舶避台决策的影响

准确的TC预报是避台决策安全、经济的重要保证,但受目前理论和技术水平的限制,完全准确的TC预报无法得到。因此,了解目前气象部门对TC预报的最新进展和动向,准确把握气象部门所能提供的TC预报水平,对于避台决策制定者有着十分重要的意义。我们通过对大量有关TC预报文献的分析研究,针对目前TC预报研究的最新进展情况,重点介绍了当前各国TC移动路径和风浪场的预报水平;提出了所存在的问题及对船舶避台决策的影响,指出进行绕避TC决策所需要解决的重要课题之一,是能够合理地、有效地使用各个不同预报台站的预报结果,科学地提取其中的正确信息,而目前气象部门广泛使用的集成预报方法有可能为此问题提供一个有效的解决办法。

The Present Situation of Typhoon Forecasting and Its Effect on Maritime Typhoon Avoidance Decision Making

Accurate TC forecasting is the important guarantee for safe and economical decision making of typhoon avoidance.Limited by present level in theories and technology,there is not completely accurate TC forecasting.So it will be of great importance for decision makers to know the latest situation of TC from observatory forecasting.By searching a great amount of relevant literatures,the present situation of TC forecast and research,especially the forecasting levels of TC movement and wind/wave fields,is introduced in the paper,the existing problems and the effect on decision-making of TC avoidance is also presented.It is pointed out that one of important projects is how to gain accurate information rationally,effectively and scientifically from forecasted results given by different observatories,and the integrated weather forecasting method that is used currently by observatories may be one of its solutions.