| Abstract: | This paper contains an empirical investigation of the relation between spot and period freight rates for the ocean dry bulk shipping market. This relation is commonly referred to as a term structure. This paper hypothesizes a present value model, expressing the period rate as expectations of future spot rates, to represent this relation. The present value model is estimated using a vector autoregressive modelling approach. Although formal tests on the vector autoregressive models reject a restriction imposed by the present value relation, alternative, informal, tests proposed in financial markets research show that there is, in fact, considerable evidence that the present value model provides a valid description of the relation between spot and period freight rates. The results in this paper, therefore, support the existence of a term structure in ocean freight rates. |
