浅海区域粉砂骤淤量的复合极值预测

渤海湾是我国的海洋石油生产基地，频繁发生的海洋灾害对石油钻采运输造成极大的影响。在粉砂质浅海区域，大风往往引发严重的淤积现象。以沧州浅海区域为例，考虑能量平衡，建立了粉砂骤淤的经验计算公式；收集1991年-2002年期间的大风数据，后报了大风在外航道产生的粉砂淤积量；选择单因素复合统计模式，对骤淤量的重现值进行了估计，为沧州港外航道的防淤减淤工程提供设计参数。

Prediction of Sudden Silty Sand Volume in Shallow Water Area with Compound Extreme Value Distribution

Bohai Bay is the oil production base in China. Frequently occurred ocean disasters cause serious influence on offshore drilling, oil extraction and transportation. Serious sudden silt frequently occurs in shallow water area under strong winds. Based on the concept of energy balance, an empirical formula is established to calculate the volume of silt-sand sudden siltation. This paper collects wind data during 1991 to 2002 and hindcasts silt-sand volume under strong winds. Four kinds of compound extreme value distributions are chosen to estimate return values of siltation volume for silt-prevention engineering design of open channel of Cangzhou Port.