| 连云港港货物吞吐量预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐兴亚,杨磊,李晓英.连云港港货物吞吐量预测研究[J].水运工程,2011(4):63-66. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐兴亚 杨磊 李晓英 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京,210098 |
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| 摘 要： | 分别采用线性回归法和支持向量机法对连云港港货物吞吐量进行预测研究,在此基础上,提出基于前两种方法的最优线性组合预测模型。通过对3种预测方法的预测结果对比,指出组合预测法具有性能稳定且精度较高的特点。最后根据组合预测模型结果,给出连云港港2010—2015年货物吞吐量的预测数据。
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| 关 键 词： | 线性回归 支持向量机 组合预测 货物吞吐量 |
Prediction of cargo throughput of Lianyungang port |
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| XU Xing-y,YANG Lei,LI Xiao-ying.Prediction of cargo throughput of Lianyungang port[J].Port & Waterway Engineering,2011(4):63-66. |
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| Authors: | XU Xing-y YANG Lei LI Xiao-ying |
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| Institution: | XU Xing-ya,YANG Lei,LI Xiao-ying(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China) |
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| Abstract: | The linear regression method and support vector machine method are used respectively to make a prediction on the cargo throughput of Lianyungang port.Based on the two methods,an optimal linear combined forecasting model is built.By contrasting the results of three methods,it indicates that combined forecasting method is more accurate and steady-going.In the end,the final prediction of cargo throughput of Lianyungang port from year 2010 to 2015 is given according to the combined forecasting model. |
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| Keywords: | linear regression support vector machine combined forecasting cargo throughput |
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