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停车换乘可靠性是决定停车换乘设施能否成功吸引用户的重要因素之一.为了度量基于地铁的停车换乘可靠性，考虑了道路网上旅行时间不确定性、停车设施内搜索泊位时间不确定性和地铁车站等车不确定性，定义了“换乘可靠度”和“方式可靠度”.利用随机网络均衡分析方法模拟小汽车出行者以个人旅行时间最小为原则的旅行选择行为，包括方式选择、路径选择和停车设施选择.通过蒙特卡洛模拟和相继平均法求解均衡模型，并设计算例验证了不确定性对停车换乘分担率的显著影响.算例还分析了地铁发车频率、停车设施容量和总需求强度等因素对停车换乘可靠性的影响.

Metro-Based Park and Ride Reliability Analysis

The reliability of the park and ride (P&;R) system is one of the important elements that influence its attractiveness to the users. To measure the magnitude of metro based P&;R reliability, this paper proposes two concepts: transfer reliability and mode reliability. The uncertainty is considered in these concepts, which are caused by random travel times on roadways, random parking searching times within parking facilities, as well as random waiting times on metro stations. The stochastic user equilibrium analysis is adopted to simulate auto travelers’ behaviors (e.g., model choice, route choice, and parking choice) under the principle of travel costs minimization. The formulated model is resolved by the Monte Carlo method and the method of successive average. A numerical example is designed to demonstrate the significant effect of reliability/uncertainty on P&;R mode share. In addition, P&;R reliability analysis is conducted with respect to factors such as the metro train dispatching frequency, parking capacity and the level of total demand.