基于随机需求的配送环节平稳工作状态研究

分析了描述配送中心配送过程中各关键状态的一系列随机变量,构造了描述在运输车辆离开时刻配送中心内部待运货物数量变化情况的一步转移概率矩阵。根据马尔可夫链和母函数的性质,在假设订单到达服从泊松分布的条件下,推导出保证配送中心处于稳态工作状态的充分条件和必要条件,认为如果能保证顺次相邻两运输车辆离开配送中心的间隔时间的均值小于运输车辆最大装载量与货物运送需求到达配送中心强度的比值,则系统中不会出现待运货物数量无穷多的现象。

Stable working state of the delivery based on the randomness demands

The author empolyed some stochastic variable and construct the one step transition probability matrix which can describe the quantities of the goods waiting to be transported in the distribution center when the vehicle depart from the distribution center.These variable could describe the key state of the link of the delivery in the distribution center.With the property of the Markov chain and the application of the generating function,and the condition in which the orders arrived at the distribution center in the Poisson flow,the author deduced the sufficiency condition and the necessary condition by which ensured the link of delivery was stable.That is,if the mathematical expectation of interval of two adjacent carriers' arrival is less than the ratio of the load of the vehicles and the intensity of the goods demand arrive at the distribution center,the quantities of the goods waiting to be transported in the distribution center is limited.