基于公交OD数据的居民公交出行特征研究

已有研究在应用“四阶段法”进行公共交通需求预测时，缺少对居民公交出行分布规律及变化特征的分析．文中通过从潍坊、常州、上虞、蚌埠和湖州五个典型城市居民出行调查数据库中提取出公交OD出行的有效数据，运用图形处理及模型标定等方法进行深入的数据挖掘，研究了居民出行时间消耗特征、出行时间分布特征和出行空间分布特征。指出：0公交出行的可容忍时间与建成区面积及公交分担率密切相关：②由于城市发展状态、经济发展水平及人们出行规律的不同，都会造成出行时间分布的差异；③分析同一城市不同时期居民出行空间分布时，应具体分析各区之间的出行联系强度。居民公交出行时空分布特征的研究，可以为城市公共交通需求预测及公交线网规划提供定量的参考依据及理论支持，该项研究的结论和分析方法可供其他城市借鉴和使用。

Characteristic Research of Resident's Bus Trip Based on Bus OD Data

Some researches with the four-stage method lacked characteristic analysis of resident bus trip OD data. In this paper, through investigating the bus OD data distilled from the resident＇s OD trip database of Weifang, Changzhou, Shangyu, Bengbu and Huzhou cities, the time consuming, time distributing and space distributing characteristics of the resident＇s bus trip were studied. The results showed that ：（1） The tolerance of bus travel time is closely related to the built up area, public transport rates of the city, and the state of urban development; （2）The economic development and people of different travel customs resulted in the different distribution of resident＇s travel time;（3） The trip distribution analysis in different periods should be concreted on the travel link strength between the districts. The study on the characteristics of bus trip＇s time and space distributing made a large contribution to forecasting the public transportation demand and public network planning by offering theoretical support, and these methods could be used for reference by other cities.