Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable |
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| Authors: | John A Hall Christopher P Weaver Jayantha Obeysekera Mark Crowell Radley M Horton Robert E Kopp |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Defense, Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program and Environmental Security Technology Certification Program, Alexandria, Virginia, USA;2. Environmental Protection Agency, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA;3. South Florida Water Management District, Adaptation to Sea Level Rise Project, West Palm Beach, Florida, USA;4. Federal Emergency Management Agency, Federal Insurance and Mitigation Administration, Rick Management Directorate, Washington, DC, USA;5. Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA;6. Department of Earth &7. Planetary Sciences and Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA |
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| Abstract: | Sea-level rise (SLR) is not just a future trend; it is occurring now in most coastal regions across the globe. It thus impacts not only long-range planning in coastal environments, but also emergency preparedness. Its inevitability and irreversibility on long time scales, in addition to its spatial non-uniformity, uncertain magnitude and timing, and capacity to drive non-stationarity in coastal flooding on planning and engineering timescales, create unique challenges for coastal risk-management decision processes. This review assesses past United States federal efforts to synthesize evolving SLR science in support of coastal risk management. In particular, it outlines the: (1) evolution in global SLR scenarios to those using a risk-based perspective that also considers low-probability but high-consequence outcomes, (2) regionalization of the global scenarios, and (3) use of probabilistic approaches. It also describes efforts to further contextualize regional scenarios by combining local mean sea-level changes with extreme water level projections. Finally, it offers perspectives on key issues relevant to the future uptake, interpretation, and application of sea-level change scenarios in decision-making. These perspectives have utility for efforts to craft standards and guidance for preparedness and resilience measures to reduce the risk of coastal flooding and other impacts related to SLR. |
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| Keywords: | coastal risk management extreme water levels managing uncertainty regional/local sea-level rise scenarios risk-based approach |
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