江都散货泊位船舶操纵仿真模拟研究

拟建江都散货泊位工程水域附近流态复杂。为保证进出港船舶和靠、离泊作业船舶的安全,需要对拟建工程进行模拟仿真研究。根据实地拍摄视景图片和定位,制作出码头附近的三维视景库,利用当地实测地形资料和相关资料,制作出包括码头设计尺寸、航道的三维地形图和视景图及电子江图,运用水流模拟软件进行模拟和验证,建立了6自由度的设计船舶模型,根据不同风、流组合条件,进行了模拟航行和操纵试验,得到试验数据和模拟研究结论。本次模拟研究,首次使用专业水流模拟软件,结合大型船舶操纵模拟器进行试验,使结果更加具有参考价值和科学依据。

Research on Ship Handling Simulation for Bulk Carrier Berth of Jiangdu City

Prediction of ship traffic accident has been an important and significant research task of researchers.The results of analysis from the methods of regression forecasting,time series forecasting,grey theory forecasting and Bayesian statistics forecasting etc.respectively are compared with the total piloting amount and the actual situation of accidents in a certain domestic pilot station for latest ten yearsand more,and the accident count and rate in the future are predicted.Specially,the application of Bayesian statistics theory in predicting pilotage risks is discussed.Which concludes that this method has good prediction effectiveness.