基于Credit Metrics的城投公司结构性风险评价研究

随着我国城市基础设施建设规模的快速扩大,城市基础设施建设投资公司项目类型多元化与融资方式多元化匹配造成的结构性风险已经成为影响其健康发展的主要问题.在分析了城投公司结构性风险的发生机理及传导机制的基础上,针对城投公司债务的信用转移问题,运用Credit Metrics模型对城投公司结构性风险进行评价研究.结果表明,城投公司存在结构性风险且隐患巨大.一旦资金链出现问题,城投公司的债务将出现严重的违约情况.

Study on Structural Risk of Urban Development Company Based on Credit Metrics

With the fast development of our cities＇ infrastructures,the problem of the matching relationship between diversified project and diversified financing has been very serious.This kind of problem causes a kind of risk which is called structural risk.This paper not only analyzes the mechanism of the structural risk but also researches the transmission mechanism of the risk.Credit Metrics is used to evaluate the structural risk of urban development company.The result shows that there is structural risk in urban development company and the potential danger is obvious.As long as the capital chain is destroyed,there will be serious default problem.