居民全日出行方式选择动态模型研究

为改进现有交通方式选择模型,提高交通方式预测模型精度,基于出行链建立了居民全日出行方式选择动态模型。从居民出行方式选择机理分析入手,确立出行方式选择动态影响因素,在多项Logit模型（MNL模型）的基础上建立了方式选择动态模型。模型中增加了2类动态影响因素,即先前出行方式选择结果对后面出行方式选择的影响和主链的出行方式选择结果对子链出行方式选择的影响。最后以安徽省淮北市为例对模型进行了实例分析。结果表明：所建立的动态模型的优度比和预测准确率较基于单次出行效用的MNL模型有较大提高,变量在模型中的意义符合中国国情,模型可服务于城市交通规划和交通政策制定。

Research on Dynamic Model of Within-day Travel Mode Choice of Residents

In order to improve the current travel mode choice model and increase prediction model accuracy of travel mode,authors built a dynamic model of within-day travel mode choice.The mechanism of travel mode choice of residents was analyzed firstly.Then,the dynamic effect factors of travel mode choice were decided.Finally,the dynamic model of travel mode choice was built based on the MNL model.The effect of previous travel mode choice decision on current travel mode choice and the effect of main tour travel choice decision on sub-tour travel mode choice were considered as the dynamic effect factors in new model.The data of Huaibei city,Anhui Province were taken as example in this paper.The results show that the new model is much better and has a higher prediction accuracy than MNL model on the basis of single travel utility,and the meanings of the effect factors agree well with the truth of China.The mode choice dynamics model can be used for traffic planning and transportation policy making.