| 基于D-S证据理论的山区铁路隧道施工风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 陶绍钧,李远富,冯德梁.基于D-S证据理论的山区铁路隧道施工风险评估[J].交通科技与经济,2011,13(5):36-39. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陶绍钧 李远富 冯德梁 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南交通大学道路与铁道工程系,四川成都,610031 |
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| 摘 要： | 山区铁路隧道施工具有不确定性和复杂性,为降低其事故发生的概率及所造成的损失,建立基于D-S证据理论的山区铁路隧道施工风险评价模型。该模型首先由AHP法计算评价指标的权重,采用基于Bayes近似法的D-S证据理论计算方法,进行多层次递阶评价,得出山区铁路隧道施工风险等级的评估值,为后续风险控制奠定基础。
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| 关 键 词： | 山区铁路 隧道施工 风险评估 D-S证据理论 |
The Risk Assessment of Mountain Railway Tunnel Construction Based on D-S Evidence Theory |
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| TAO Shao-jun,LI Yuan-fu,FENG De-liang.The Risk Assessment of Mountain Railway Tunnel Construction Based on D-S Evidence Theory[J].Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications,2011,13(5):36-39. |
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| Authors: | TAO Shao-jun LI Yuan-fu FENG De-liang |
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| Institution: | TAO Shao-jun,LI Yuan-fu,FENG De-liang(Road and Railway Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China) |
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| Abstract: | As a result of the mountain railway tunnel construction's uncertainty and complexity,accident may happen at any time,in order to reduce the probability and the loss,the article has established a risk assessment model based on D-S evidence theory.In this model,firstly,the author used the AHP method to calculate the evaluating indicators' weight;secondly,based on the D-S evidence theory combined with the Bayes approximate method,carried on multi-level hierarchical evaluation;finally,obtained the assessed valu... |
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| Keywords: | mountain railway tunnel construction risk assessment D-S evidence theory |
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