基于效用理论的铁路选线方案比选模型

为了解决传统铁路选线设计方案评价方法没有考虑不同宏观经济形势的影响，并且对于一些不能完全用货币衡量的环境影响和社会效益等定性指标难以进行定量化研究的问题，引入效用理论以及多属性决策中的投影法，在专家采用语言变量对定性指标进行评价的基础上，将定性指标转化为区间数，再通过定义效用函数对宏观经济的影响效果进行量化，建立了不同宏观经济形势影响下的线路方案评价模型.根据该模型，通过使用不同的经济环境因子k来选择与其对应最优的线路方案.最后通过一个局部走向方案的比选实例说明了模型的作业程式，为新形势下铁路选线设计的方案选择提供了一种新的综合评价方法. 

Optimal Selection Model of Railway Location Designs Based on Utility Theory

Traditional scheme comparison methods for railway route selection have not taken into account the impact of different macroeconomic situations on the optimal selection of railway locations. Besides, there still exist operational difficulties in qualification of indicators that cannot be measured by money. To overcome these defects, the utility theory and projection method were introduced into optimal selection of railway location designs in this work. Firstly, interval numbers were introduced to quantify qualitative indicators after experts evaluated alternatives using linguistic variables. Then, by defining utility functions to quantify the impact of macroeconomic situation, a model of route scheme evaluation in different macroeconomic situations was established. From this model, the optimum scheme could be selected by using different economic environmental factor k. Finally, an example of local alignment scheme comparison was used to illustrate the operation procedure of the model. This work provided a new and synthetic evaluating model for optimal railway route scheme selection in railway location design.