实时流场预报及在海面溢油轨迹预测中的应用

本文提出了舟山定普港域三维实时流场数值预报和调和预报方法，并在海面溢油轨迹预测应用实例中作了验证。结果表明，该方法能较准确地预报港域内流场的空间和时间分布，由预报流场驱动的溢油轨迹同实测结果一致，适合于在海上溢油事故等环境问题中使用。

Real Time Current Field Forecast and its Application to Marine Oil-spill Trajectory Prediction

Numerical and harmonic forecast approaches to the three dimensional real time current fields for the waters adjacent to Zhoushan Port are proposed in the paper and verified in the actual application to the marine oil spill trajectory prediction. It has been shown that the spatial and temporal distributions of current fields of the port area of interest can be forecasted accurately by the approaches. The oil spill trajectory driven by the forecasted current fields is consistent with the observed one. The approaches can be used for the solution of the environmental problems such as marine oil spill accident.