基于灰色预测模型的某型导弹费用研究

随着导弹武器装备技术含量提高、组成变复杂,各种费用也随之增加,对其费用的分析具有涉及范围广、时间跨度大、变量多及数据离散等特点。分析此类系统的特点,利用灰色理论的对其费用进行研究,并从某型导弹有限的寿命周期费用数据出发,建立GM(1,1)模型进行预测,结果较好。

LCC of Missile System Based on Gray Theory

With the development of the missile system, its cost becomes costliness. Life cycle cost is the total cost in the whole life including the purchase and support cost. The gray theory is fit to deal with the system which has limited data. A GM(1,1) model is set up based on the analysis of certain type of missile. The cost of the type of missile is forecasted and the result is satisfactory.