铁路客运量的系统动力学预测

在分析铁路客运量主要影响因素的基础上,建立了铁路客运量预测的因果关系图和流程图,写出了DYNAMO方程,并对模型中的参数进行了标定,利用历史数据检验及灵敏度分析对模型的有效性进行了验证,对我国未来五年的铁路客运量进行了预测.结论显示,经检验模型有效可行,系统动力学方法较好地符合铁路客运系统的特征要求,能够很好地进行铁路客运量短期预测.

Forecast of Railway Passenger Volume Using System Dynamics

A system dynamics model is established based on the analysis of main factors and their relationships in the railway passenger transportation system. The causal loop diagram, flow chart and the DYNAMO equa- tions were established, and relevant parameters are determined. The model is verified by comparison of histori- cal statistical and simulated data. Finally passenger volumes of next five years in railway transport system are forecasted. The results show that the model is effective and feasible. System dynamics model meets the charac- teristics of railway passenger transport system. It can be used to forecast short-term railway passenger volume well.