| 公路建设项目经济评价概率分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 夏正浩,严宝杰. 公路建设项目经济评价概率分析[J]. 公路, 2002, 0(2): 69-71 |
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| 作者姓名： | 夏正浩 严宝杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中交第一公路勘察设计研究院,西安市,710068
2. 长安大学,西安市,710064 |
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| 摘 要： | 公路建设项目经济评价概率分析是研究不确定因素变化发生可能性的大小，以及在这种可能性下对评价指标的影响程度及项目获得收益的概率。运用离散性系统仿真原理，建立各风险因素概率模型，通过计算机产生(0，1)均匀分布随机数、各概率分布的随机变量，量化各因素对评价指标的影响程度，计算评价指标的风险概率。
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| 关 键 词： | 公路建设项目 经济评价 风险估计 概率分析 |
| 文章编号： | 0451-0712(2002)02-0069-03 |
Probability Analysis of Economic Appraisement of Highway Projects |
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| XIA Zheng hao ,YAN Bao jie. Probability Analysis of Economic Appraisement of Highway Projects[J]. Highway, 2002, 0(2): 69-71 |
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| Authors: | XIA Zheng hao YAN Bao jie |
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| Affiliation: | XIA Zheng hao 1,YAN Bao jie 2 |
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| Abstract: | The probability analysis of the economic appraisement of the highway construction project is to determine the probability of the charge on the undefined factors and its effect on the appraisement index and the probable benefit which can be gained from the project The probability model of risk factors is constructed by the theory of discrete event system simulation The stochastic number of (0,1) distribution and the stochastic variable of probable distribution are determined on computer The effect of risk factors on the appraisement index is quantified and to calculate the risk probability of appraisement index |
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| Keywords: | economic appraisement risk probability probability analysis |
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