基于可信性理论的电气化铁路接触网可靠性的模糊评估

首先基于故障树分析法建立了接触网系统的可靠性模型,在大量调研和统计分析的基础上,用梯形模糊变量描述接触线、承力索和绝缘子的故障率和修复率,用三角形模糊变量描述接触网其他部件的故障率和修复率,将接触网系统的故障率、修复率和可用度等可靠性指标视为随机模糊函数,利用可信度理论实现了接触网可靠性的模糊评估。计算结果表明,只要掌握各部件故障率和修复率的大致分布,就可以较准确地计算接触网系统的可靠性指标,误差满足工程精度的要求。

Fuzzy Reliability Evaluation of Electrified Railway Catenary System Based on Credibility Theory

The reliability model of the railway catenary system has been established based on FTA at first.The failure rate and repair rate of the contact wires,messenger wires and insulators are characterized by trapezoid fuzzy variables,and those of the other components by the triangle fuzzy variables.All the reliability indices are taken as the probabilistic fuzzy functions.The fuzzy reliability evaluation of the railway catenary system has been done based on the credibility theory for the first time.Evaluation results show that the reliability indices of the catenary system can be calculated precisely provided that the approximate distributions of the failure rates and repair rates of the components of the system are given.