天津市交通指数及其在双限政策评估中的应用

利用出租汽车浮动车大数据研究科学合理且直观易懂的交通指数并动态跟踪城市道路交通运行规律,不仅是中国大城市关注的焦点,更是在天津市机动车限购、限行政策下非常重要的城市交通基础性研究。通过出租汽车车速精度分析、期望车速选取、指数标准化等关键技术研究,提出天津市可应用于宏观交通政策评估和交通规划研究的交通指数。同时,应用交通指数分析双限政策实施前后两年城市交通的运行特征,分别从年、月、日、小时及区域五个方面评估双限政策的实施效果。结果表明,天津市适度超前的机动车限制政策对缓解交通拥堵的效果显著并得到广泛支持。

Traffic Index of Tianjin and Its Application in Evaluation of Vehicle Purchase Rationing Policy and Vehicle Usage Restriction Policy

Using Taxi equipped GPS data to develop a scientifically rational and understandable traffic in-dex system for urban road network and dynamically tracking urban traffic pattern is regarded as the focus of Chinese metropolises as well as serving to evaluate vehicle purchase rationing and vehicle usage restric-tion Policies in Tianjin. Based on analysis on speed detection accuracy, selection of expected speed, stan-dardization on congested index, this paper proposes a traffic index system which is able to evaluate trans-portation policy and planning tasks, Furthermore, the proposed system has been successfully applied in the assessment of vehicle purchase rationing and vehicle usage restriction Policies of Tianjin via a detailed tem-poral and spatial before-after study. The main findings reveal that two policies adopted by Tianjin have been significantly improving road traffic condition and receiving extensive supports.