Contributions to maritime economics—Zenon S. Zannetos, the theory of oil tankship rates

This paper discusses the importance of Zannetos' 1966 book for the development of maritime economic thought. The main contributions of the book are recounted, and the empirical work in the book is reviewed.

The analysis of the present paper is a citation research on the maritime economics literature that refers to the book. Of the 42 papers in the set, about one-third refers to the book in general. A total of 35 papers refer to one or more elements of the book, with an equal number of references to: (1) the term structure of freight rates; (2) the empirical findings on the form of the supply curve; and (3) on the verification of his results.

The general conclusion of the citation analysis is that, apparently, a number of elements of his work are still very valid for current maritime economics thinking, while maritime economists have disregarded several other elements. The latter seems unjustified for some of the business structure observations that are made in the book, such as the notion that the ship is the firm, and the elasticity of expectations. The former observation is the basis for virtually all empirical work in maritime economics that is based on individual contract data (all freight rate analysis is of this nature), and the second is the basis for the analysis of investment behaviour in shipping, investigations of cyclicality and so on.

Zannetos can definitely be seen as the initiator of the important field of term structure analysis in maritime economics. In addition to this, there are several topics in the 1966 book that are as yet unexplored, and deserve empirical scrutiny.