| 基于层次分析法和D-S证据理论的码头风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 王群朋,唐存宝. 基于层次分析法和D-S证据理论的码头风险评估[J]. 广州航海高等专科学校学报, 2021, 29(1): 1-6 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王群朋 唐存宝 |
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| 作者单位： | 广州航海学院 海运学院,广东 广州510725 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(52071091);2020年广州市教育局高校科研项目资助(202032788)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 在码头风险评估过程中,目前常用的方法对风险事件发生的概率和影响上有一些主观的定性分析,带有结论上的模糊性.运用一种层次分析法和证据理论结合的方法可以提高评估的准确性和可靠度,该方法通过层次分析法确定各评估因素的权重,在此过程中用D-S证据理论对专家评分数据进行融合修正,运用D-S证据理论的合成法则确定码头的风险值.将该...
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| 关 键 词： | 层次分析法 证据理论 数据融合 风险值 码头风险评价 |
Pier Risk Assessment Based on the AHP&DSET |
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| WANG Qun-peng,TANG Cun-bao. Pier Risk Assessment Based on the AHP&DSET[J]. Journal of Guangzhou Maritime College, 2021, 29(1): 1-6 |
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| Authors: | WANG Qun-peng TANG Cun-bao |
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| Affiliation: | (Department of Navigation,Guangzhou Maritime University,Guangzhou Guangdong 510725,China) |
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| Abstract: | In the process of terminal risk assessment,the current commonly used methods have some subjective qualitative analysis on the probability and impact of risk events,with vague conclusions.This article uses a method of analytic hierarchy process and evidence theory to improve the accuracy and reliability of the evaluation.This method uses the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each evaluation factor.In the process,DS evidence theory is used to fuse expert score data.Applying this method to the risk assessment of a 150000 ton bulk cargo berth for the northern operation area of Lanshan Port in Rizhao Port,the results show that the terminal construction is generally in a good level and is consistent with the construction of the terminal,which verifies the reliability of the model. |
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| Keywords: | Analytic hierarchy process evidence theory data fusion risk value terminal risk assessment |
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