Probit模型及其在交通方式分担中的应用研究

离散选择模型的典型代表Logit模型简洁易用的特点使其在经济、交通等领域得到了广泛的应用，但同时Logit模型的两个重要缺陷限制了其应用范围。本文分析了Logit模型的固有缺陷，阐述了Probit模型的基本原理，研究了Probit模型的性质，并与Logit模型进行了对比研究，最后利用SAS统计软件MDC模块提供的仿真算法进行了实证性分析，研究结果表明，Probit模型克服了Logit模型IIA特性和喜好随机性限制的缺陷，表现出更为丰富的物理意义，对出行选择行为的模拟更接近实际，是一种具有广阔发展的前景的交通方式分担模型。

Study on Probit Model and Its Application to Traffic Mode Split

Logit Model is being widely used in the filed of economy and Transportation because of its simpleness and convenience,but at the same time,Logit model has two important disadvantages which limit the scope of its application.The paper analyzed and compared the properties of both the Logit Model and the Probit Model.By use of the MDC Procedure in SAS software,adetailed example of application of Probit Model to traffic mode split was illustrated.There sults indicates that Probit Model overcomes the disadvantages of the Logit model and is more powerful and meaningful to simulate the choice behavior of trvaelers.And Probit model exhibit sgreat potential to become apromising under taker in the application to traffic mode split.