Impact of climate change on pavement structural performance in the United States |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, PO Box 873005, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA;2. Civil and Environmental Engineering, American University of Beirut, Lebanon;1. Department of Construction Management, Facultyx of Civil Engineering, Uniersity of Žilina, Unierzitna 8215/1, 01026 Žilina, Slovakia;2. Dapartment of Highway Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Žilina, Univerzitna 8215/1, 01026 Žilina, Slovakia;1. Bialystok University of Technology, Faculty of Management, ul. Wiejska 45A, 15-351 Bialystok, Poland;2. Warsaw University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Institute of Roads and Bridges, Al. Armii Ludowej 16, 00-637 Warsaw, Poland;3. Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, The Faculty of Civil Engineering, Sauletekio al. 11, 10223 Vilnius, Lithuania;1. Center for Transportation Infrastructure Systems (CTIS), The University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX, USA;2. Department of Civil Engineering, Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI), Worcester, MA, USA;1. Institute of Highway Engineering, RWTH Aachen University, Mies-van-der-Rohe-Street 1, D52074 Aachen, Germany;2. School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, 150090 Harbin, China |
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| Abstract: | This study uses climate projections from multiple models and for different climate regions to investigate how climate change may impact the transportation infrastructure in the United States. Climate data from both an ensemble of 19 different climate models at both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 as well as three individual prediction models at the same Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) levels is used. These models are integrated into the AASHTOWare Pavement ME software to predict the pavement performance. Comparisons are made between the predicted performance with respect to typical pavement distresses using both historical climate data as well as climate projection data. Though there is substantial variation for different prediction models in terms of the magnitude of the impact, the consistency in results suggest that projected climate changes are highly likely to result in greater distresses and/or earlier failure of the pavement. This finding is consistent across all the climate zones studied, but varies in magnitude of 2–9% for fatigue cracking and 9–40% for AC rutting at the end of 20 years depending on the climate region of the pavement section and prediction model used. This study also compares the impacts incorporating temperature only projections with temperature and precipitation projections. In this respect, the sections considered in this study do not show any substantial difference in the pavement performance when the precipitation data from the climate predictions are also considered in the climate inputs into AASHTOWare Pavement ME software. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change AASHTOWare pavement ME software Pavement performance CMIP5 Impact assessment |
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