Decomposing passenger transport futures: Comparing results of global integrated assessment models |
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| Affiliation: | 1. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Antonie van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9, 3721 MA Bilthoven, The Netherlands;2. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria;3. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands;4. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;5. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Corso Magenta 63, 20123 Milan, Italy;6. UCL Energy Institute, University College London, Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, United Kingdom;7. Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan;8. European Commission, JRC IPTS, Edificio Expo; C/ Inca Garcilaso, 3, E-41092 Sevilla, Spain;9. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland-College Park, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD 20740, USA;10. CIRED, 45 bis avenue de la Belle Gabrielle, Nogent-sur-Marne Cedex 94736, France;11. School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, E3MLab, National Technical University of Athens, 9 Iroon Polytechniou Street, Zografou, 15773 Athens, Greece;12. Systems Analysis Group, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), 9-2 Kizugawadai, Kizugawa-shi, Kyoto 619-0292, Japan;13. International Energy Agency, 9 rue de la Fédération, Paris 75015, France;1. DTU Management Engineering, Produktionstorvet, Building 426, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark;2. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, CA, United States;3. E4SMA, Via Livorno 60, 10144 Turin, Italy;4. Energy Policy and Modelling Group, MaREI Centre, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland;5. Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden;1. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, 2594 AV Den Haag, The Netherlands;2. Fac. of Geosciences, Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, Utrecht 3584 CS, The Netherlands;3. International Institute of Applied System Analysis (IIASA). Schlossplatz 1 - A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria;1. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St. George Street, Toronto, ON M5S 1A4, Canada;2. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria;1. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, 2594 AV, Den Haag, The Netherlands;2. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS, Utrecht, The Netherlands;3. CIRED, International Research Center on the Environment and Development, 45 bis Avenue de la Belle Gabrielle, 94736, Nogent-sur-Marne, France;4. UCL Energy Institute, University College London, Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H 0NN, United Kingdom;5. Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan;6. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland-College Park, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, MD, 20740, USA;7. Systems Analysis Group, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), 9-2 Kizugawadai, Kizugawa-shi, Kyoto, 619-0292, Japan;1. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, 2594 AV Den Haag, The Netherlands;2. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands;3. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany;4. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Corso Magenta 63, 20123 Milan, Italy;5. UCL Energy Institute, University College London, Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, United Kingdom;7. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria |
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| Abstract: | The transport sector is growing fast in terms of energy use and accompanying greenhouse gas emissions. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used widely to analyze energy system transitions over a decadal time frame to help inform and evaluating international climate policy. As part of this, IAMs also explore pathways of decarbonizing the transport sector. This study quantifies the contribution of changes in activity growth, modal structure, energy intensity and fuel mix to the projected passenger transport carbon emission pathways. The Laspeyres index decomposition method is used to compare results across models and scenarios, and against historical transport trends. Broadly-speaking the models show similar trends, projecting continuous transport activity growth, reduced energy intensity and in some cases modal shift to carbon-intensive modes - similar to those observed historically in a business-as-usual scenario. In policy-induced mitigation scenarios further enhancements of energy efficiency and fuel switching is seen, showing a clear break with historical trends. Reduced activity growth and modal shift (towards less carbon-intensive modes) only have a limited contribution to emission reduction. Measures that could induce such changes could possibly complement the aggressive, technology switch required in the current scenarios to reach internationally agreed climate targets. |
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| Keywords: | Passenger transportation Energy modelling Model comparison Low emission scenarios |
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