Electric vehicles for greenhouse gas reduction in China: A cost-effectiveness analysis |
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| Institution: | 1. State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;2. Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;3. Collaborative Innovation Center for Regional Environmental Quality, Beijing 100084, China;4. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria;5. Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;6. School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom;7. Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway;8. State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China;1. Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;2. Systems Assessment Group, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois 60439, USA;3. Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;4. State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;1. State Key Lab. of Automotive Simulation and Control, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin 130025, China;2. State Grid Energy Research Institute, Beijing 102209, China;3. School of Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081, China;1. Department of Economics, University of California, Davis, United States;2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, United States |
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| Abstract: | There have been ongoing debates over whether battery electric vehicles contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in China’s context, and if yes, whether the greenhouse gas emissions reduction compensates the cost increment. This study informs such debate by examining the life-cycle cost and greenhouse gas emissions of conventional vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles and battery electric vehicles, and comparing their cost-effectiveness for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The results indicate that under a wide range of vehicle and driving configurations (range capacity, vehicle use intensity, etc.), battery electric vehicles contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions compared with conventional vehicles, although their current cost-effectiveness is not comparable with hybrid electric vehicles. Driven by grid mix optimization, power generation efficiency improvement, and battery cost reduction, the cost-effectiveness of battery electric vehicles is expected to improve significantly over the coming decade and surpass hybrid electric vehicles. However, considerable uncertainty exists due to the potential impacts from factors such as gasoline price. Based on the analysis, it is recommended that the deployment of battery electric vehicles should be prioritized in intensively-used fleets such as taxis to realize high cost-effectiveness. Technology improvements both in terms of power generation and vehicle electrification are essential in improving the cost-effectiveness of battery electric vehicles. |
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| Keywords: | Battery electric vehicle Greenhouse gas emissions Cost-effectiveness analysis Life cycle assessment China |
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