Adapting the shipping sector to stricter emissions regulations: Fuel switching or installing a scrubber? |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Edificio sede 1, 1st floor, Parque Científico UPV-EHU, Sarriena s/n, 48930 Leioa, Spain;2. Escuela de Ingeniería de Bilbao, Universidad del País Vasco-Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea (UPV-EHU), Ingeniero Torres Quevedo Plaza, 1, 48013 Bilbao, Bizkaia, Spain;3. Economics for Energy, Gran Vía 3, 3°E, 36204 Vigo, Spain;1. Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Trondheim, Norway;2. Norwegian Marine Technology Research Institute (MARINTEK), Trondheim, Norway;1. Norwegian Marine Technology Research Institute (MARINTEK), Trondheim, Norway;2. Norwegian School of Economics (NHH) and SNF and CenSES, Bergen, Norway;1. Norwegian Marine Technology Research Institute (MARINTEK), Trondheim, Norway;2. United European Car Carriers (UECC), Oslo, Norway;3. Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway |
| |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the existing fleet in the shipping industry can be adapted to the new emission regulations through the two main techniques that currently exist: (a) the use of low-sulphur marine diesels; and (b) the installation of scrubbers. A method is presented here for drawing up an economic assessment of both these techniques under uncertainty. It enables the best option to be selected at any given time taking into account fuel prices (spot and futures), scrubber installation costs, the time that the vessel operates in an Emission Control Area (ECA) and the remaining useful lifetime of the vessel. The paper also considers the possibility of an unexpected change from a non-ECA navigation area to an ECA. The assessment is carried out in a manner consistent with marine diesel and crude oil spot and futures market quotes. Our results show the net present value of investing in the installation of scrubbers and investing in changing fuel types for different assumptions on how vessels are operated. We also analyse increases in fuel consumption and CO2 emissions as a consequence of using scrubbers and how they affects the financial analysis if such incremental emissions must be paid under a CO2 pricing mechanism. |
| |
| Keywords: | Marine fuel Uncertainty Sulphur emissions Technology decision Stochastic models |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
