高速公路养护成本预测模型

为了降低高速公路养护成本,运用边际成本管理原理,建立高速公路交通流量、道路长度与养护成本之间的多元回归分析数学模型,针对预防养护和专项工程养护方式,运用统计方法,推导了各项因素的边际成本表达式,提出高速公路养护作业成本的预测模型及成本管理的边际成本和弹性指数的概念,计算了交通流量、道路长度与养护成本相关的弹性指数,分析了与交通流量相关的高速公路养护费用经济指标。计算结果表明:交通流量和高速公路长度对养护维修成本起决定作用,维修费用随交通流量和道路长度成对数关系变化,而高速公路养护维修平均费用随着交通流量增加而降低。

Forecast model of expressway maintenance cost

In order to decrease expressway maintenance cost,the mathematic model between maintenance cost and the factors of traffic flow and road length was established by using the management theory of marginal cost,aimed at preventive maintenance and special project maintenance for asphalt pavement on expressway,the marginal cost expression of every factor was derived by using statistical method,the concepts of marginal cost of expressway maintenance management and maintenance elastic index were first expressed,and a forecast model of expressway maintenance cost was established.With the model,the elastic indices of traffic flow and road length relating to maintenance cost were calculated,and the economic indices of expressway maintenance cost relating to traffic flow were analyzed.Computation result shows that traffic flow and road length are the primary influence factors on expressway maintenance cost,there is logarithmic change relationship between road length and expressway maintenance cost,and expressway maintenance average cost decreases with traffic flow increase.4 tabs,4 figs,10 refs.