一般收费道路通行费收入实用预测方法研究

重点探讨实际道路规划项目中一般收费道路的收费收入预测方法,目的在于尽可能使收费收入预测更为精确。在我国,高速公路通常采用依靠征收通行费以偿还投资借贷的方式进行建设,因此在规划的过程中需要对通行费收入进行预测,并进行财务分析,以保证决策者做出正确的投资决策。以笔者在日本从事的高速公路建设项目为例,分析研究了基于实用型交通量增量分配方法结合使用车种转换矩阵的高速公路路网中一般收费道路通行费收入的预测方法,并将其应用到实际道路项目财务评价中。结果表明通过控制收费道路出入口间交通量预测精度,以及采用需求相关性较大的车种转换调查数据可以提高通行费预测精度。研究表明这一方法具有很强的实用性,该方法对我国的高速公路需求预测有着借鉴作用。

Study on Practical Forecasting Method of Toll Revenue for Certain Toll Road

This study aims at studying a practical method for improving toll revenue prediction.Expressway investment decision must be made carefully,since the amount of investment is huge.In China,expressways are constructed based on repayment principle,and toll revenue is used to pay back the loan.Therefore,toll revenue forecast is an important procedure in inevitable financial analysis.In this paper,a forecast method of toll revenue for certain toll road is proposed,and is applied into practice in Japan.The study shows that toll revenue prediction precision can be enhanced by improving the precision of IC OD prediction,as well as using proper traffic type transfer matrix.It shows that the method has high applicability in the process of road project evaluation.It is also applicable in China.