| 基于非负权重组合模型的江苏省入境旅游客源预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 梅亮,葛世伦,高尚. 基于非负权重组合模型的江苏省入境旅游客源预测[J]. 江苏科技大学学报(社会科学版), 2007, 21(4): 85-90 |
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| 作者姓名： | 梅亮 葛世伦 高尚 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏科技大学,经济管理学院,江苏,镇江,212003;江苏科技大学,南徐学院,江苏,镇江,212003;江苏科技大学,经济管理学院,江苏,镇江,212003;江苏科技大学,电子信息学院,江苏,镇江,212003 |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏科技大学校人文社会科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 旅游客源需求预测是一个复杂的非线性系统,其发展变化具有增长性和波动性。本文根据1998年~2005年江苏省入境旅游客源数据特征,采用BP神经网络模型、GM(1,1)模型以及指数曲线模型分别进行预测,然后结合这三种预测方法的特点,提出非负权重组合预测模型,通过实例运算的对比分析,证明组合预测模型具有很高的准确性。预测结果表明:组合预测模型优于单一预测模型,江苏省入境旅游客源的非负权重组合预测模型是有效可行的。
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| 关 键 词： | 神经网络 灰色预测 指数曲线 组合预测 非负权重 入境旅游 |
| 文章编号： | 1673-4807（2007）04-0085-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-10-20 |
Forecasting of Overseas Tourist Quantity in Jiangsu Based on Combination Model of Non-negative Weights |
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| MEI Liang,GE Shilun,GAO Shang. Forecasting of Overseas Tourist Quantity in Jiangsu Based on Combination Model of Non-negative Weights[J]. Journal of Jiangsu University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition), 2007, 21(4): 85-90 |
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| Authors: | MEI Liang GE Shilun GAO Shang |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Economy and Management, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang Jiangsu 212003, China; 2. Nan Xu College, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang Jiangsu 212003, China; 3. School of Electronics and Information, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang Jiangsu 212003, China |
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| Abstract: | The forecast of tourist quantity from abroad is a complicated non-linear problem.The developmental change possesses the dual trend of increasing and fluctuation.Based on the data feature of oversea tourist in Jiangsu province from 1998 to 2005,three forecast models are adopted separately,namely the back-propagation neural network model,the GM(1,1) model and the exponential curve model.Combined the characteristics of three forecast methods,a forecast model with non-negative weights is proposed.The exactness of the combination forecast model is validated through the contrast and analysis with practical cases.Estimated results show that the combination forecast model can overmatch the single forecast model.The combination model with non-negative weights is feasible for the forecast of the oversea tourist quantity in Jiangsu. |
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| Keywords: | neural network gray prediction exponential curve combination forecasting non-negative weights oversea tourist |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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