基于实时数据的快速路可靠性及其影响因素研究

首先对快速路运行状态可靠性的概念进行了界定,提出了基于交通统计的快速路可靠度的计算方法,利用北京市二环路的实测数据,对北京市二环路各路段的可靠度进行了计算.在对可靠度值及饱和度、交通需求的波动、出入口密度、辅路交通状况等实测数据分析的基础上,得出饱和度对快速路的可靠性影响最大,其相关系数R达到0.9以上,在饱和度比较高的情况下,交通需求的波动、出入口密度、辅路交通状况与快速路可靠度的相关系数R均处于0.7以上.

Study on Reliability of Expressway Performance and Influence Factors Based on Real-time Data

First, the concept of reliability of expressway performance was defined and the method to calculate reliability of expressway on the basis of statistics was put forward. Then the reliability of each section on the second ring road of Beijing was calculated with help of real-time data. Based on the analysis of the relationship of reliability with saturation, fluctuation of traffic demand, density of on-ramps and off-ramps and traffic condition of corresponding auxiliary roads, it is concluded that (1) saturation is the main influence factor on expressway reliability and the correlation coefficient R between saturation and reliability is higher than 0.9; (2) when the saturation is relatively high, the correlation coefficients of reliability with the fluctuation of traffic demand, density of on-ramps and off-ramps and traffic condition of corresponding auxiliary roads are all higher than 0.7.