基于贝叶斯网络方法对船舶搁浅概率的研究

针对船舶航行安全的薄弱环节,在故障树分析船舶搁浅事故成因的基础上,运用贝叶斯网络对事件之间的多态性和逻辑性进行了研究。得到了事件的后验概率值,分析了导致事故发生的薄弱环节,推理得出最可能引起事故发生的事件组合,结果与统计资料一致,为提高船舶运营的安全和运营管理提供了科学依据。

The study of the probability of ship grounding based on Bayesian network analysis

In order to enhance safety of navigation.Based on fault tree analysis of ship grounding accidents,Bayesian network method is adopted to modify the polymorphism and logicality of the basic cases,and get posterior probabilities.With this method,the major factors which lead to the ship grounding are found,consistent with the data.It is helpful to distinguish effectively causes that the accidents to have the factors most possibly to combine,and very useful to develop the ships operation the security and the ope...