超限严格管制下公路货运运力结构预测研究

针对传统的超限运输运力结构预测模型中,将车辆超限部分轴载转化为同一车型满轴载通过假设的不足,本文基于运力均衡的思想建立了超限严格管制下公路货运运力结构预测模型。在轴载调查的基础上,模型以单车装载量的累积概率分布需同单位货物重量的累积概率分布相一致为求解目标,推测了各轴型车辆总重谱的偏移情况,进而对超限管制变动下的公路货运车型结构及运量结构进行预测。模型在公路安徽世行项目II———超载运输研究中的使用结果表明,在超限运输严格管制条件下,2-S2将取代SU2成为公路货运的主力车型。

Prediction of Truck Type Choice under Strict Over-loading Enforcement

An analytical model was developed to predict the variety of truck type choice under strict over-loading enforcement.It is assumed that the truck load distribution of the whole truck fleet is consistent with the shipment size distribution of the highway network and the offsets of truck's maximum load are relevant to the enforcement bounds.The choice of the type of truck was modeled using a discrete choice formulation with variable choice sets conditioned by the shipment size and the truck load.The results of the case study named the Highway Over-loading Research Project in Anhui supported by the World Bank,indicate that 2-S2 will become the most prevailing truck configuration instead of SU2 in the future with the strict over-loading enforcement.