Coastal Zone Management: Using No-Build Areas to Protect the Shorefront

Five coastal counties in Florida were studied to assess the effect of state-mandated local comprehensive plan policies on hurricane evacuation clearance times and public shelter demand. Numbers of residential units in 2002 and at the time of plan approval were estimated from property parcel data. Abbreviated transportation models were used to calculate 2002 evacuation times and shelter demand and to ascertain the impacts of post-plan residential growth within hurricane hazard areas. Calculated increases in clearance times and shelter demand are not in concert with the state's mandate to maintain or reduce clearance times. State law currently limits the leverage of the state planning agency to compel local governments to implement the required comprehensive plan policies. We recommend a concurrency management strategy that parallels the state's requirement to provide adequate transportation facilities to accommodate the impacts of future residential growth. Such a policy could be employed in other states as well.