基于集对分析和证据理论的高铁接触网健康状态评估

为及时准确地评估高速铁路接触网的健康状态,提出一种基于集对分析和证据理论的接触网健康状态评估方法。首先通过变异系数法和层次分析法相结合确定各评估指标的常权重,并根据其相对劣化度得到相应的变权重;采用集对分析方法确定各评估指标与各健康状态等级间的联系度,并将其作为基本概率分配;然后采用证据理论将修订后的基本概率分配进行融合得到评估结果;最后,采用最大隶属度原则和置信度准则来判断接触网的健康状态等级。研究结果表明:与模糊综合评估方法相比,提出的方法不仅能够有效地识别接触网的健康状态,而且评估结果更加准确,状态等级间的区分度更大,为接触网健康状态评估提供一种新的思路。

Assessment of Health Status of High-speed RailwayCatenary Based on Set-pair Analysis and Evidence Theory

In order to evaluate the health status of high-speed railway catenaries timely and accurately,a catenary health status evaluation method was proposed on the basis of set-pair analysis and evidence theory.Firstly,the coefficient of variation and analytic hierarchy process were combined to determine the constant weight of each evaluation index,and the corresponding variable weights were obtained according to their relative impairment grades.Besides,the connection degrees between each evaluation index and each health status grade were determined by set pair analysis,which were used as basic probability assignments.Then,the revised basic probability assignments were fused by evidence theory to get evaluation results.At last,the health status grade of catenary was determined by maximum membership degree law and confidence criterion.The results show that the method proposed in this paper can effectively identify the health status of catenary and deliver more accurate assessment results and greater division between states grades,compared with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,which provides a new method for the assessment of health status of catenary.