地铁轨道几何不平顺指标预测方法研究

充分考虑轨道平顺状态劣化的不确定性和异质性,基于灰色区间预测建模理论建立了轨道几何不平顺指标灰色区间预测模型。为验证模型的可靠性,根据北京地铁2号线10个典型单元区段在2017年2月至2019年2月之间的12次轨检车检测数据,以三角坑不平顺指标为例,利用所建模型进行模拟并将模型预测值与实际检测值进行对比。结果表明,该模型模拟结果精度检验合格且具有较高的预测精度,可以用于预测轨道几何不平顺指标。

Study on Prediction Method of Subway Track Geometry Irregularity Index

The state of track geometry irregularity is the key factor to affect the safety and comfort of subway operation.The research on prediction method of subway track geometry irregularity index is of great significance to the scientific compilation of track maintenance schedule.In this study,combining the considering of the heterogeneity and uncertainty of the deterioration of track geometry,the grey interval prediction model of track geometry irregularity index was proposed based on the grey interval prediction modeling theory.In order to testify the validity of the model,the data of 12 inspections by the track inspection car in 10 typical unit sections of Beijing subway line 2 from February 2017 to February 2019 was collected and validate.The results show that the model has qualified simulation result and high prediction accuracy.