城市道路拥堵与道路平均速度相关性分析

为了探求不同等级道路交通运行特征,依托广州市天河区道路运行数据,利用SPSS统计软件分析不同等级道路上平均运行速度与道路拥堵发生概率的相关性,并定量分析不同时段不同道路交通特性,弥补了以往定性分析的不足.分析结果显示,三次曲线能够很好拟合拥堵率与速度分布,且相关性分析表明工作日晚高峰的运行状况最差,其次为非工作日的晚高峰.由于数据的限制,文中未对城市快速路拥堵状况进行细致分析,也导致了拟合模型的一定局限性.根据分析结果提出城市道路交通管制的几点建议. 

Correlation Analysis of Urban Road Congestion and Average Road-speed

In order to cast light on the traffic characteristics of roads of different functional classification, this paper analyzes the relationship between the average running speed on different types of roads and probability of traffic conges- tion based on field data of Tianhe District in Guangzhou. All analyses are made by using the SPSS statistical software. A quantitative analysis of different traffic characteristics in various time periods is conducted to compensate for the deficiency of the existing qualitative analysis. The outcomes of model fitting show that the cubic curve well fits the distribution of congestion rate with the velocity; the correlation analysis show that the traffic condition during weekday evening peak is worst, followed by the non-workday evening peak. Due to the limitation of data, a detailed analysis of urban expressway is not conducted and thus the model has only limited use. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions for urban traffic control according to the results of the analysis.