基于溢出交通需求的城市轨道交通线网规模测算模型

为了从道路建设的程度测算城市轨道交通线网的规模, 分析了目前国内采用的轨道交通线网规模测算方法, 提出了基于溢出交通需求的轨道交通线网规模测算模型。在保证规划年城市道路网能维持一定的服务水平的前提下, 测算出城市交通总需求相对于道路供给的溢出量, 将溢出交通需求换算成客运量转由轨道交通承担, 利用轨道交通线网的负荷强度指标进而可确定轨道交通线网规模, 并采用不同的方法对2020年西安市轨道交通线网规模进行了测算。测算结果表明: 按出行需求推算的线网规模为103.68km, 从财政实力“可能”的角度分析为66.32~94.74km, 基于溢出交通需求推算为95.89km, 计算结果基本一致, 说明提出的测算模型可行。

Computation model of network scale for urban rail transit based on traffic demand overflow

In order to compute the network scale of urban rail transit based on the development degree of roads, the computation methods were analyzed at present, and a new computation model based on traffic demand overflow was built. With the precondition that road network could afford taffic service at certain service level in the future, the overflow of total traffic demand contrasted with road network capacity was computed, the overflow was transformed to passenger transport demand and was transported by rail transit, the rational scale of rail transit network could be confirmed by using its load intensity, the network scale of Xi'an rail transit in 2020 was computed by using different methods, and the computation results were compared. The result from travel demand model is 103.68 km, the result from financial strength analysis is 66.32~94.74 km, the result from the new model is 95.89 km, the results are basically accordant, so the new model is feasible.