产生率法区位影响修正方法研究

为减小城市交通需求预测中由于土地使用分析方面造成的误差,提出了一种基于城市区位差异分析的新的改进方法。从分析产生率法在城市交通需求预测中的地位、作用及缺陷出发,剖析了区位差异对城市出行产生率的影响,建立了城市区位优势度的概念、量化方法,深入分析了区位对出行生成阶段的影响误差与四阶段预测最终结果误差的关系,进而提出产生率法的区位影响修正方法,并应用于西安市高新区交通需求预测中,提高了模型的拟合效果。该方法能对城市新区出行生成、旧区出行生成矩阵更新提供借鉴。

Study of location impact in applying trip generation rate method

To reduce the error that comes from the analysis about the land use,authors put forward an improvement based on city location difference.Authors analyse the function and deficiency of trip generation rate method,and the impact on city trip generation rate from the location difference creates the concept of city location superiority degree,quantifying method.Then,authors further analyse the relation between the error from the location difference in trip generation and error of four-step forecast results,put forward the improvement on trip generation method,as well as apply it to the transportation demand forecasting of Gaoxin District in Xi'an and improve veracity of model results.The method can be used for forecasting the trip generation of new urban districts and updating the trip generation of old ones.