| 我国道路交通事故近期发展预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 崔月凯,高洁.我国道路交通事故近期发展预测[J].广东交通职业技术学院学报,2011,10(4):20-22,27. |
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| 作者姓名： | 崔月凯 高洁 |
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| 作者单位： | 长安大学汽车学院,陕西西安,710054 |
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| 摘 要： | 建立基于灰色预测模型、非线性回归预测模型的交通事故次数的组合预测模型，对我国未来5年的交通事故次数进行了预测。从模型预测的结果来看，我国交通事故次数在未来几年将会保持下降的趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色预测模型 非线性回归预测模型 组合预测模型 交通事故次数 |
Prediction of Road Accident Developing Trend of China in Recent Years |
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| CUI Yue-kai,GAO Jie.Prediction of Road Accident Developing Trend of China in Recent Years[J].Journal of Guangdong Communication Polytechnic,2011,10(4):20-22,27. |
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| Authors: | CUI Yue-kai GAO Jie |
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| Institution: | (School of Automobile, Chang＇an University, Xi＇an 710054, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on gray forecast and nonlinear regression a kind of combination forecasting model has been established to predict the amount of road accident in recent five years. From the result of combination forecasting model, the amount of road accident of our country will decline, and the trend of declination is obvious. |
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| Keywords: | gray forecast model（GM） nonlinear regression forecast model combination forecasting model the amount of road accident |
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