| GM（1,1）与回归预测组合模型在结构剩余寿命预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李清富,冯隽,王亚峰.GM（1,1）与回归预测组合模型在结构剩余寿命预测中的应用[J].港工技术,2009,46(2):24-26. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李清富 冯隽 王亚峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 郑州大学水利与环境学院,河南,郑州,450001 |
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| 基金项目： | 河南省高校创新人才培养计划 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用灰色灾变预测原理解决预测中的历史数据跳变问题，并利用回归方法对跳变点之间的情况加以预测。从而实现GM（1，1）预测和回归预测的有机结合。应用该方法对结构寿命进行预测分析，结果表明：该法可克服GM（1，1）模型和回归预测各自的缺陷，使预测结果更为精确。
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| 关 键 词： | GM(1 1)模型 回归预测 剩余寿命 |
Research on Structure's Residual Life Forecast Based on the Combined Method of GM(1,1) Model and Regression Model |
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| Li Qingfu,Feng Jun,Wang Yafeng.Research on Structure''s Residual Life Forecast Based on the Combined Method of GM(1,1) Model and Regression Model[J].Port Engineering Technology,2009,46(2):24-26. |
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| Authors: | Li Qingfu Feng Jun Wang Yafeng |
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| Institution: | School of Water Conservancy and Environment Engineering;Zhengzhou University;Zhengzhou Henan 450001;China |
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| Abstract: | The problem about history data＇s aberrant points can be solved by gray disaster forecasting theory and the developing trend between two aberrant points can be forecasted by the regression analysis so as to achieve an organic combination. After the estimate of the structure＇s residual life, the result showed that：their respective deficiencies of the GM （1,1） model and the regression analysis model have been overcome, meanwhile, the forecasting result is more exact. |
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| Keywords: | GM（1 1） model regression forecast residual life |
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