公路投资项目多目标决策研究

公路投资项目决策是对投资项目进行横向比较评价的多目标决策问题.文中分析了利用亚洲开发银行技术援助项目贷款进行公路投资决策的6个影响因素,包括公路通达水平、公路连通水平、公路等级水平、公路发展速度、公路投融资能力和对地区经济贡献等.利用德尔斐法和层析分析法构建了我国公路投资项目多目标决策评价的3层指标体系:第一层次表示公路投资项目决策排序,第二层次为6个影响因素,第三层次是6大类指标中的详细指标,共选取19个具体评价指标.文中选取黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、内蒙古、陕西、青海、宁夏、河南、湖北、湖南、云南等11个省份进行了实例分析,对公路投资项目进行排序.计算结果表明,我国应优先投资云南农村公路项目的建设,其次是黑龙江.在11个省区中,河南和宁夏公路建设投资排在最后的位置.

Research on Multi Objective Decision-making of Road Investment Project

Road investment project decision-making is a multi objective one to give the horizontal comparative evaluation on investment project.This paper analyzes the 6 factors of using Asian Development Bank technical assistance project loans for the road investment decisions,including roadway,road connectivity,road grade level,road development,road investment and financing ability,and contributions to the regional economy.Construct the three tier indicator system of the multi objective decision-making evaluation for our nation's road investment by Delphi and AHP.The first level indicates the sequencing of the road investment project decision-making,the second level refers to the 6 factors,and the third level refers to the detailed ones in the 6 kinds of indicators,a total of 19 selected specific evaluation indicators.The specific examples of 11 provinces are analyzed,such as Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning,Inner Mongolia,Shanxi,Qinghai,Ningxia,Henan,Hubei,Hunan,Yunnan and so on.The road investment projects are ranked,and the result shows that China should give priority to investment in the construction of Yunnan rural road projects,followed by Heilongjiang,and that in the 11 provinces and regions,Henan and Ningxia road construction investment should be ranked at the end of the list.