国际干散货运输市场回顾与展望

2003年是国际干散货运输市场迄今为止表现最为强劲的一年。以中国进口铁矿石和日本进口煤炭为核心的需求空前高涨,谷物和小宗散货海运贸易也十分活跃,历史罕见的压港和低增长的新交船使运力供应高度紧张,市场出现严重的“结构性失调”,不仅夏季淡季不淡,表现火爆。而且在中国“十一”长假期间出现“井喷”行情,BDI指数一举冲破4 500点大关,较上一个历史高点1995年5月1日的2 352点高出2 000多点,三大船型运价水平均创历史新高。之后市场经过半个月的调整又再度发力,BDI再度越过4 700点大关,以完美的表现宣告了今年的结束。各权威机构对世界经济在2004年将加快发展已经基本达成共识,而目前在国际干散货运输市场中起着引擎作用的我国经济发展更是势头强劲,其钢铁工业步入高增长期,已成为不容争辩的事实,这无疑都为国际干散货运输市场提供了一个更加广阔的发展空间。运力方面虽然新交船数量略高,但船舶压港短时间内难以解决。因此,2004年的干散货运输市场总体形势看好。

Review and Prospect of International Dry Bulk Cargo Shipping Market

As the most bullish year in history for the international dry bulk cargo shipping market in 2003, which pushed by the unprecedented Chinese imported iron ore and Japanese imported coal demand, very flourish grain and mini dry bulk shipment and high tight fleet supply because of the uncustomary ports congestion, and low new vessels delivery. These important factors seriously broke the market balance radically, caused freight rate was not only flat in summer, but also rocketed up during Chinese golden week in October. The BDI rush through the 4500 points bottleneck, more about 2000 points than last highest record-2352 points on May 1st 1995. Then rose again after half month's adjustment, the BDI index came across 4700 points, significantly end a year抯 performance. With world economic will grow faster in 2004 (most world authority institute have reached the coconscious viewpoint) and Chinese economic-the dry bulk market engine, will keep its strong growth rate, whose steel product industry has stepped in a fast development period. It will offer the Shipping market a more enlarged rising room. Although the number of new vessel will be few more than this year抯, but ports congestion could not alleviate, the 2004 dry bulk cargo shipping market will keep its current high.