固定资产投资与行业利润关系的实证分析

以我国2003-2011年38个行业为研究样本，通过面板数据协整检验、误差修正以及格兰杰检验，分析样本行业固定资产投资和利润的关系。研究结果表明：无论是从短期还是长期来看，固定资产投资对行业利润都有着显著的正向影响，且行业利润与固定资产投资之间也存在着正向相关的关系。但就因果关系而言，固定资产投资与行业利润变动之间存在单向的格兰杰因果关系，即利润是固定资产投资的格兰杰原因，而固定资产投资不是利润的格兰杰原因。从一定程度上说明是利润率的变化引导行业投资量的变化，反过来投资量的变化并不改变行业利润。

Empirical Analysis on Relationship between Fixed Asset Investment and Industry Profits

Taking 38 industries from 2003 to 2011 in our country as study samples, this paper analyzes the relation-ship between fixed asset investment and profits through co-integration test, error correction and Granger test of the panel data. Study results show that fixed asset investment has significant positive effect on industry profits either in long term or short term, and positive relevant relation exists between fixed asset investment and industry profits;while in term of causality relations, there is one-way Ganger causality relation between fixed asset investment and profits, namely, profits are the Granger cause of fixed asset investment with fixed asset investment being not prof-its’Granger cause. It can be concluded to some degree that the change of profit rate may determine the change of investment volume and the change of investment volume does not offect the industry profits.