中国城市交通调查与模型现状及发展趋势

城市交通调查和交通需求模型在中国已有30多年的发展历程,在新的数据环境和城镇化发展背景下,有必要探讨交通规划定量分析技术的发展方向。首先介绍中国城市交通调查的技术问题、体制保障等现状情况,同时概括交通模型的技术发展和应用现状。其次,从调查数据采集和维护机制,交通模型理论体系和功能需求,人才队伍以及模型在交通规划决策中的地位等方面分析交通调查和模型存在的问题。最后,预判中国城市交通调查和模型的发展趋势,提出大数据和交通模型互动发展、交通模型和GIS技术全面结合、加快制定指导手册和标准等相关发展建议。

Current and Future Development of Urban Travel Survey Methods in China

Urban travel survey and travel demand models in China have been developed for more than 30 years. Confronting with the new data era and urbanization development, it is necessary to discuss the devel-opment of quantitative transportation planning technique. This paper first reviews the technical issues and institutional procedures in current urban travel survey in China, as well as the technical development and application of transportation models. The paper discusses existing problems in travel survey and model in several aspects:data collection and maintenance, theoretical framework and functional demand of transpor-tation models, qualified professional, and models' decision making roles in transportation planning. Final-ly, the paper outlines the future development of urban travel survey and modeling work in China. The pa-per proposes the interactive development of big data and transportation models, integration of transporta-tion model and GIS technology, and establishment of guidelines and standards.