基于损失分析的监测项目评选方法研究

针对传统监测项目评选方法中的不足，借助贝叶斯理论，建立了一个基于可能损失分析的现场监测项目评选方法。该法通过分析监测项目费用损失与由于异常状况未被检测出所带来的补救损失情况，将不同条件下所有可能监测项目组合中期望损失最小的组合作为最优监测项目。并以佛山“一环”软基工程监测项目为例，论证了方法的实用性。

Study on Evaluation Method of Monitoring Project Based on Loss Analysis

For the deficiency in traditional evaluation method of monitoring projects,with the help of Bayesian theory,this paper establishes an evaluation method for field monitoring project based on possible loss analysis.This method specifies the combination with minimum expected loss as the optimum monitoring project in all possible project combinations under different conditions through analysis of monitoring project expenditure loss and remedies caused by undetected abnormal condition.With monitoring project of Foshan ＂First Ring＂ soft foundation engineering as the example,it demonstrates the practicability of this method.