考虑自行车步行影响的交通平衡综合分析模型

步行和自行车等外界因素对机动车流的影响也具有随机性,但是这种影响更多地表现为可预见性和可控制性(尤其从交通管理的角度来看),可以说这种影响将导致可预见性的路段实际通过能力降级,并且可预见性特征使得这种影响不同于随机用户平衡中路段旅行时间的感知误差.笔者通过区分路段通过能力降级因素为内因(路段上车流量增加导致道路服务水平降级)和外因(由与路段上与车流量无关的外部因素,如随意过街人流、自行车流等外部因素,引起的道路通过能力降级),并且区分路段旅行时间为通行能力降级路段上行程时间和排解交通拥堵花费的滞留时间两个构成部分的基础上,建立了考虑自行车步行影响的交通平衡综合分析模型;通过对路段参数敏感性分析和实例对照,既展示了该综合分析模型-路径期望旅行时间平衡分析模型与确定性网络用户平衡分析模型的差异性,又展示了路径期望旅行时间平衡分析模型能较好地再现人们对道路路段通行能力降级情形下的车流路径选择行为.

The equilibrium analysis model include effects of bike and walk

The effects which traffic flow suffer from bike and walk have two attributes of stochastic and predictability. The parts of predictability attributes would cause predictable network’s link degradation and is different from perceptive errors of stochastic use equilibrium. In this article the cause of link travel ability degrade is classified into two parts: over-travel-flow degrade link travel ability and other reasons come from outside of traffic flow. Further more en-route travel time is classified into two parts: traverse link time and lagged time. Based on this analysis, traffic equilibrium model on base of route mean travel time is proposed, in this model people choice alternative route to balance between two criterion: the shortest travel time and travel time reliability. Sensitivity analysis and some example confirms the proposed model enable to illustrate and simulate the route-choice action and enable to recur human being’s hate psychology to the road degraded capacity and human being’s tolerance psychology to variance of the road capacity.