| 我国近期道路交通事故发展趋势分析与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王扬,闫小勇,张天伟.我国近期道路交通事故发展趋势分析与预测[J].交通标准化,2006(1):85-88. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王扬 闫小勇 张天伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 石家庄铁道学院交通工程分院,河北,石家庄,050043;石家庄铁道学院交通工程分院,河北,石家庄,050043;石家庄铁道学院交通工程分院,河北,石家庄,050043 |
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| 摘 要： | 在讨论发达国家交通事故发展变化规律及我国道路交通安全现状的基础上，对我国近期交通安全形势进行分析，并采用灰色系统理论对我国未来五年的交通事故总量进行预测。对于提高道路安全水平具有积极的意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 道路交通事故 发展趋势 预测 灰色系统理论 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-4786（2006）01-0085-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-06-27 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年6月27日 |
Analysis and Forecast for the Tendency of Road Traffic Accidents in Near Future of Our Country |
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| WANG Yang,YAN Xiao-yong,ZHANG Tian-wei.Analysis and Forecast for the Tendency of Road Traffic Accidents in Near Future of Our Country[J].Communications Standardization,2006(1):85-88. |
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| Authors: | WANG Yang YAN Xiao-yong ZHANG Tian-wei |
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| Institution: | Branch School of Traffic Engineering, Shijiazhuang Railway College, Shijiazhuang 050043, China |
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| Abstract: | By discussing on the developing rules of traffic accidents in developed countries and the status of road traffic safety in our country, it is significant to analyze the state of traffic safety in near future of our country, and forecast the gross of traffic accidents in future five years using Grey System theory. |
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| Keywords: | road traffic accident tendency forecast Grey System theory |
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